Predictions are a hard business to do. Politics is boring most of the time due to the gridlock in the US Government. As of late December 2025, Morning Consult polling from December 23rd shows Trump with a +7 disapproval rating, while Economist/YouGov from the same date shows him with a +14 disapproval rating. In terms of direction of the country, Economist/YouGov from December 23rd shows Wrong Track leading by +18 points. Diving into the Democratic primary polls at this time shows more credible pollsters such as Emerson and Atlas Intel pulling for Newsom while other pollsters like the Big Data Pollster are pulling for Harris to win the Democratic primary contest.
Understanding the right wing and the current stance of right wing politics
Rasmussen, previously supportive of Trump, now shows him trailing in the polls. Realclearpolitics’s latest poll from them on Dec 29th showed an approval rating of -10 for Trump. Their CEO, Mark, appeared on the Alex Jones show, as discussed in Knowledge Fight podcast episode 1094, dated Nov 12th, 2025. Dan Friesan, the host of the podcast, questioned why the CEO would even go on the program since it would not help with their poll numbers.
Mark has adopted a conservative populist stance, criticizing Trump for associating with billionaires, despite Dan Friesan’s observation that Trump’s policies would not address the wealth gap or housing inequalities exacerbated by current policies. Dan Friesan humorously suggests that conservatives should admit liberals have been correct about Trump since 2016. Alex Jones attempts to understand the situation with the Trump pollster and respond to the ongoing Epstein saga. Although Jones reached the peak of his influence in 2016 by hosting Trump, he maintains connections with politically popular figures like Mark Mitchell and controversial individuals such as Roger Stone, whose ties to Trump remain uncertain.
According to Knowledge Fight, Alex Jones remains on good terms with Tucker Carlson, who has a vast audience and appeared at the RNC during the election. The way in which Alex Jones, while struggling to respond to Epstein is emblematic to what is going on with the Republican Party right now. You have politicians such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, pulling the hard stops and actively choosing to retire over this issue. Trump called the people who supported him who were being critical over the Epstein issue stupid, which brings me to my first prediction:
1. More Retirements Besides Elise Stefanik
Going off of a pattern, while house Republicans seem to cave to Mike Johnson (R-Indiana)‘s every whim, there does seem to be a drip drip drip going on here. Not within a few months of Marjorie Taylor Green announcing her retirement, did Elise Stefanik announce that she would step down from politics. She also chose to step down from running for Governor for New York. Someone who is as important to the conference of the Republican Party and who isn’t seen as MAGA as Marjorie Taylor Greene surely could represent others in the party.
While journalists like Melissa Lawson report that the current revolt seems to be in the form of discharge petitions, with people bucking the party leadership (and in MTG’s case, Trump), while right now it seems to be in the form of a discharge petition, one on federal workers protection, another on the ACA subsidies, that could change tomorrow.
2. More Antisemitism
On December 14th, an attacker killed 15 people on Bondi Beach in Sidney, Australia, despite Australia having tough gun laws on the books already. Prime Minister John Howard outlawed certain guns and started a gun buyback program, limiting the amount of mass shootings in the country. The authorities say that the suspect, the man and the son involved in the shooting, were responsible, at no times did they show radicalization to others. Ahmed al Ahmed is the hero that stopped the attack from getting worse. The FBI says that nearly 70% of Jewish hate crimes target jews.
With antisemtism on the rise to that extreme, it seems like a certainty that there will be more antisemitism in the new year, whether in the form of a free Palestine attack, or a religious gathering. While Bibi Netenyahu is not a great leader, that does not give people the excuse to attack people based on their race, ethnicity, or religion. Unfortunately, one of the unfortunate facts is that it is becoming edgy for people to be antisemitic, and, one of the reasons that we unfortuantely have to pay attention to people like Tucker Carlson or Alex Jones is due to the fact that they either hiding behind plausible deniability, or, they openly promote people that are antisemitic including Ye and Nick Fuentes.
3. Democrats Sweep the Midterms
Brian Cheung, the Business and Data correspondant for NBC reported that despite GDP growing from 4.3% from July to September, that consumer confidence is down 3.8%. Credit card balances are up $24 billion, but questions are growing as to whether or not consumers will be able to pay that back, or, are they going in debt? On NBC, he was openly saying that people are not paying attention to whether or not they have the money for their bills. Secondly, questioned what does the data mean per income strata, per different income group. With the premiums set to expire without Congressional action, mainly middle-income strata individuals or families will be hit hard by the subsidies going away.
A person over 60 is likely to spend more on health care than someone who is a young adult, and, beyond that, looking at the data provided by CNBC indicates that the Affordable Health Care bill is widely used in MAGA Trump voting states, for instance, Florida and Texas are two of the top subsidy receiving states. Secondly, a lot of individuals or family members just over the 400% of the federal poverty level would also be affected by the subsidy cliff. With the voting disatisfaction, poll after poll showing the possibility of Democrats retaking Congress, while the economy may seem like it’s doing better there are a lot of stresses that are going on behind the scenes. While there is a possibility of Congress reaching a deal on health-care, even if it does pass the House, it faces an uphill climb in the Senate.
4. The media is going to miss their mark on how to cover conservative politics.
While it’s clear that NBC News and ABC News might want to cover Trump as they rightly should since he is the President of the United States, various podcasts, including Knowledge Fight, and, others go more in depth on some of the conservative thought leaders on the alternative right. Knowledge Fight episode 1089 was a deep dive on Nick Fuente’s media tour, which the Wall Street Journal reported that there was a blowup within the Heritage Foundation over.
Essentially Tucker gave a softball interview which was so boring that not even the host of Knowledge FIght, Dan Friesan wanted to go over, so instead of covering it, Dan covered many of the other comments that Nick Fuentes made, such as wishing that towns were white like the one that he grew up in, or, even analyzing his origin story in another clip, how he was jaded from someone that he had a crush on. Nick Fuentes strongly dislikes all Jews, and, doesn’t apologize for what he says.
Tucker Carlson Has Defended Nick Fuentes
He believes a Christian religious nation, with the exclusion of Jews. The fact that Tucker allowed Nick to be platformed, caused an uproar within the Heritage Foundation, especially after Kevin Roberts, the President of the organization defended Tucker Carlson saying that you can’t tell him who to interview or not interview (paraphrased). While, it does seem that this has gained some traction in the media, very few media organizations seem to be as honed in on what Nick Fuentes or Tucker Carlson actually believe in as much as Knowledge Fight, or certain specialized pocasts do. This was a momentary blip on the radar, and, already, the media has moved onto the next media news cycle.
While there are other predictions I could make, these are the biggest ones. I wanted them to be timely, based on current events. While there are many predictions one could make, what would make a better set of predictions would be based on what is possible. The current status quo on health care is that it will expire, however, it is interesting that House Speaker Mike Johnson faces pushback from within his own party. What will happen next? Trump makes many truth social posts about threatening the media, yet, lawsuits against the New York Times are stopped in their tracks, and very few consequences have happened.
If the media didn’t pony up and pay Trump settlements, would they have likely won their lawsuits? That’s what it seems. I guess my point is sometimes a lot of things can happen in a short period of time with the Trump administration, he tends to have a good batting record with the Supreme Court, but, sometimes he doesn’t always get his way, or, he loses interest in a subject, and tells us that he will have an idea about a topic in two weeks.
He seems to be a master at saying a lot of things and hoping that the average American is going to just forget about it. Despite all the noise, these are the predictions I feel comfortable making, I woiuld love it if I was wrong ons ome of them, but there seems to be certain trends that are happening, and, right now with the facts as they are, this is where see them.
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