Fox News reported late this week on Iowa: “Trump leads Biden 51 percent to 41 percent and leads Sanders 53 percent to 41 percent in Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll results released Thursday.”
“The same poll, conducted March 2-5, also showed Trump with a 50 percent approval rating in Iowa – the president’s highest ever in the Hawkeye State, according to the Register. The president’s strongest support in Iowa was among Republicans (94 percent), rural Iowans (68 percent), evangelicals (63 percent), men (60 percent), and those with annual income of $100,000 or greater (57 percent).”
Iowa is a state that the Democrats need to pick up in order to win. It has voted Democrat every time since 1988, except 2004 and 2016. The Democrats want it back.
Iowa is in ways a microcosm of the entire country. It has urban centers like Des Moines, but also suburban and rural areas as well. The state, as noted above, has swung between the two parties and is ripe for picking by both sides.
This poll was also taken after the Democrat caucuses there when Democrat voter enthusiasm was at a high. In the Democratic Party the rifts are deep, as late results gave Sanders a win. But Biden’s subsequent surge puts those Sanders-voting Iowans out of the picture in November. Do they go with Biden, who they soundly rejected at the caucus, or go with the president who they voted for in 2016?
Given these numbers, their choice, so far, seems clear.
But November is months away and much can impact the vote until then. There is the coronavirus and the political and economic fallout from it. However, the president’s swift and decisive actions in the face of the virus may make Iowans, and many swing voters, give him credit for stopping the spread of the disease. It is likely both the Biden and Trump campaigns will spend time and money in this state in the fall. When they do, Biden will begin with a decided disadvantage.